Chapter 2: That Man in Malacañang
Now the reason the enlightened prince and the wise general
conquer the enemy whenever they move and their achievement
surpass those of ordinary men is foreknowledge
- Sun Tzu
Malacañang Palace, Manila
May 15
1000 hrs.
Ramon de Ocampo was the youngest man ever to hold the office. Beneath his boyish charm and wit lay a cold, calculating mind. Described often by many as an astute and unpredictable politician he was nonetheless that rare blend of intelligence and courage that a president needed. His people, he believed, had learned their hard lessons about democracy. No longer were they gullible enough to elect popular but incompetent leaders into high office. He had proven to them that for a democracy to work properly, they had to be clear on what their long term goals were and were ready to choose the people best prepared to achieve them. It was a major step when the previous president called for and passed a law that forced political parties to present their platform of government as a requirement for recognition. Another reform that helped was the passage of both the Freedom of Information Law and the Anti-Political Dynasty Law that severely limited the power and influence of the oligarchs that had long dominated and held back the progress of the country.
He handily won the elections by pledging to continue his successful efforts in improving the economy and lifting people out of poverty. When his predecessor died of heart failure halfway through the term, as the vice-president, he was thrust into a position of power and leadership. He spent the next four years working with Congress to pass important economic and social reforms that lay the groundwork for the economic miracle his country had become. The results were impressive. A quarter of the population was lifted out of poverty. Education became more accessible to everyone who wanted to go to school. Official corruption was suppressed when a sizable number of prominent officials were arrested and jailed. Criminality had also been reduced to an all-time low. The country began to truly industrialize by building products that China used to make before it became a pariah. The aftermath of the war between China and Japan weakened the economies of what used to be the richest countries in the region. Even a unified democratic Korea was still in the midst of rebuilding itself. It went without saying that the misfortunes of its northern neighbors contributed largely to the boom. After three straight years of double digit GNP growth, many analysts were in agreement that the country had become at par with its other ASEAN partners namely Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam.
But some problems still persisted. Muslim militants still made their presence felt in Mindanao despite the destruction of radicals like the Maute Group. There were still small pockets of what was once the Communist New People's Army in the hinterlands of Southern Luzon. But these were now considered problems for the Philippine National Police as the Armed Forces of the Philippines was almost now exclusively dedicated to external defense.
The previous attempt by the Chinese to cut off Pag-asa island made many people jittery. He knew that the Chinese would never willingly give up its Nine-Dash claim of the entire South China Sea even though the United Nations had ruled against it over a decade ago. That made it clear that the Chinese would come back some day with overwhelming force. With the United States no longer willing to support anybody in Asia after two costly wars, the president understood that they would be on their own. This made his daily morning intelligence briefings with his National Security Advisor valuable.
"Good morning, Mr. President."
"Good morning Jaime. I see you've brought Director Aranaz with you."
"Yes, sir. He's here to provide more detail to the briefing."
In his capacity as such, Jaime Reysio-Cruz presided over the National Intelligence Coordinating Agency or NICA. Unlike its counterparts in the AFP and law-enforcement agencies, it was not well known. Very few people outside the inner circles of government even knew where its offices were or if it still existed. The fact was it was created in 1987 to gather intelligence on the operations and intentions of individuals, groups or states that were considered a danger to the national security. Its intelligence network had grown from a few hundred to almost three thousand operatives. Many of them were assigned abroad with more senior members tasked to coordinate with their counterparts in the CIA, Israel's Mossad, England's MI6 and ASEAN agencies. Other operatives were trained to hide in plain sight. Almost every intelligence gathering agency had a NICA officer secretly keeping an eye on their brethren. It was their operatives that warned the government about the plan to take Pag-asa island. They also accurately predicted that China would immediately invade Taiwan if it ever declared itself independent. The real intelligence coup occurred after the fall of Taiwan when the much infrastructure and personnel of the National Intelligence Bureau were rescued and recruited by the NICA to keep an eye on China. Their operatives from both Taiwan and Mainland China were giving them important information. Of course, much of it would still be examined and analyzed to verify its value just to make sure they weren't being fed the wrong information. So far, most of the intelligence was solid. It was from these intelligence sources the briefing that morning would be based on. That was why he brought along NICA Director Francisco Aranaz with him to brief the president.
"This seems serious. Normally I have either one of you come to the briefing. The two of you together seems downright scary. Please take your seats."
"Mr. President, in the last forty-eight hours we have been experiencing major attempts to hack into our sensitive computer systems. We've confirmed that they're attempts from the Chinese to cripple our strategic and economic networks."
"What did they hit?"
"Banks, the electric grid, National Defense and National Security systems."
"Damage?"
"The banks suffered some loss of records but nothing they couldn't reconstruct before Monday. Our power grids went down for an hour but everybody assumed it was just the usual power insufficiency we have every summer."
"We're letting the press go with that story."
"What about our security networks?"
"The decoy network has about seven major firewalls. They only managed to break into one. The real network as you know, Mr. President, nobody outside this room really knows about."
"But don't they try to hack everybody every now and then?"
"Ordinarily, we'd agree Mr. President. But they've never hit us this way all at the same time. Given the scale and the magnitude of the attacks, we've come to the conclusion that these were deliberate and coordinated ordered at a higher level."
"The last time anybody saw anything like this was just before they attacked Taiwan."
Director Aranaz let that last word sink in for a moment.
"Do we have any confirmation on the ground, Francis?"
"Nothing we can call relevant. It could be a prelude to an attack or it could be Beijing just reminding us that they're not too happy with our 'improvements' on Pagasa island. Our operatives are keeping their ears very close to the ground."
"Keep me posted Francis. But I suppose the two of you wouldn't have come together unless you have a bigger problem than that."
Reysio-Cruz nodded at the president.
"Remember our initial concerns about the thousands of refugees we accepted after the fall of Taiwan? We had concerns that Beijing would try to slip in hundreds of potential agents along with the people we were helping."
"I remember this. My predecessor wasn't that worried as most of them wanted to move on to another country like the United States or Canada. We processed them out as quickly as we accepted them. After two years, there was hardly anybody left."
"But remember how difficult it was for the navy to patrol our side of the Luzon Strait? Given the sheer number of refugees and the size of the coastline we never could intercept all of the people landing on our shores. We did in fact catch a few agents mixed along with the refugees. But they were red herrings. They were easy to catch. They were male, military age, alone with no family and spoke fluent English. Even one our recruits was able to tag one. We were supposed to catch them to give ourselves a false sense of security. What we now know is that Beijing has co-opted and cultivated many of our people from the Chinese community to work for them. They're essentially sleeper cells. Hiding in plain sight and waiting for their handlers to give them their orders."
"How long have they been doing this?"
Aranaz replied, "They've been doing it for a very long time. Decades, actually. We're keeping an eye on some of them hoping they'll lead us to a few more like them. But that's not the only problem."
"Do continue Francis."
"We've also been monitoring the tourists that have been arriving from countries we don't normally consider threats. We did so because our friends from MI6 and the CIA intercepted communications which indicated that agents were coming in from countries like Singapore and Malaysia. From what we've gathered, Beijing sent operatives that could easily pass for native Filipino and are fluent in Tagalog and at least one other dialect. Once inside the country, they could easily disappear into the population and nobody'd be the wiser."
"So what do you think is going on Jaime?"
"If I had to guess, the cyber attack was not just a probe of our network, it was also a signal for their operatives to start their work, whatever that is. We're probably looking at possible attacks on bases, installations and even assassinations."
"That's a pretty big leap don't you think? If they were planning to attack us what would be their objective? The South China Sea is essentially in their hands. They already have a half a dozen rigs in the area pumping out the oil and natural gas over and above the UN's numerous resolutions for them to stop. As strong as we are now, we're still no match against their navy even if they lost a third of their fleet to the Japanese and Americans. Tell me, Francis, have there been any notable deployments of the Chinese navy or air force?"
"No, we haven't observed any movement or any change in their routine. But they don't really need to. The Chinese South Sea fleet did not deploy against the Japanese last year. Their North and East Sea fleet were decimated but the South remained intact. Their submarine fleet lost all their nuclear boats including their ballistic submarines which the Japanese navy took out. Of their three carriers, only the Liaoning is still in any shape to be called operational. The same is true for their air forces in Southern China. They remain intact and dangerous. Some of their front line aircraft have been forward deployed on bases in Taiwan. These include half their Flankers and two squadrons of single engine J-10s. The balance of which is still stationed on bases on the mainland. A flight of J-10s as you know, are also are periodically stationed on their base on Fiery Cross Reef. Just a stone's throw away from Pagasa."
"Understood. But it would still not make any sense for them to make a move against us now. What would they have to gain by it? Strategically, they've already achieved their goals in the South China Sea."
"We agree sir. Except that we received this report concerning their oil production in the South China Sea. Apparently, it has not been yielding as much oil and natural gas as was predicted. Those half a dozen rigs you mentioned are not and were never producing up to capacity. According to the report, plans to bring in additional rigs have been cancelled because of the low yield. Throw in their annual consumption and the embargo then you have a major energy crisis on their hands. We already have reports of gas and diesel rationing, rotating brownouts, factory closures, unemployment, price increases and even food shortages. The reports are sketchy but we do have some unconfirmed reports of armed uprisings in Western China."
"So if you're the Chinese government and your country is running out of oil, your economy is in the shitter and your people are getting restless, what do you do?" asked de Ocampo.
"I'd start looking for oil." Reysio-Cruz replied.
"Moscow moved many of their divisions along the border just in case Beijing wants to invade Siberia. The PLA has moved units north but not enough to threaten the already suspicious Russians."
"So I return to my original question. Why hit us? If the reports are accurate, the South China Sea is a bust. Nothing to be gained by an attack. Going for Indonesian and Malaysian oil is a bad idea as it would just be too far and would expose what's left of their fleet to an ASEAN military response. Unless.."
It suddenly dawned on him.
"Yes sir. They want the Rise."
"Son of a bitch."
Binondo District, Manila
2045 hrs.
Lorenzo Keh had just finished a dinner meeting with some of the most influential Chinese businessmen in the city. Although he did not completely get what he wanted, he was not totally disappointed. He was a first generation migrant whose family had come from Fuzhou province. He had applied for an acquired citizenship after a few years. He had started and developed a successful trading company which regularly made deals in Mainland China during its Post-Deng Hsiao Ping era. It was quite successful until it the invasion of Taiwan. In the last decade he had built a steady reputation as a serious trader with both legal and not-so-legal connections with Mainland China. With the UN embargo still in place, trading with China was a complicated mess of applications, approvals, monitoring and wholesale corruption. It was in the latter that he had proven his skill. The UN had allowed limited trade in food, medicines and other humanitarian goods. Using the many loopholes in Philippine laws, he had created shell companies with dummy owners. With those companies, he had engaged in an active black market trade with China by not selling goods beyond the quotas set by the UN but of weapons and technology which were banned and monitored by the US and its allies. As much as Filipino bureaucrats and politicians were now levels beyond the corrupt lapdogs they were a decade ago, they were still essentially susceptible to bribery. Everybody had a price. In this country, it was just a matter of finding out how much.
His dinner meeting was about his proposal to open a special economic office to open up trade with China. He had argued that after a year, the embargo had already achieved its goal of making the Chinese government act more responsibly. The embargo had left ordinary Chinese citizens suffering from the near collapse of their economy. The restoration of some economic ties with Beijing would lay the groundwork for normalization of relations and the reopening of the large Chinese market to trade. He pointed out that the Philippines was in a unique position to do just that as Beijing's relations with Japan, Korea and the United States have been in tatters for the better part of a decade. Of course many people in his audience politely listened to his arguments and saw that he had a point and indeed there was a profit to be made but there were a few who had relatives who were killed in Taiwan who reacted vehemently to his ideas.
"You pig! These are the people who killed thousands when they nuked Taipei. And you want us to restore relations with these killers? What's next? Are you going to say the invasion was just a misunderstanding and we should all just move on?
The resistance from the relatives was to be expected. But he was careful to take note of the ones who did not react violently to the idea. He would call on each of them privately and secure their participation in his proposals. True enough, the businessman in him knew there was a lot of money to be made with trading with China. It was also a means for many people to send help to their relatives left behind in Taiwan. The illicit trade helped in even rescuing some of those relatives from either Taiwan or the mainland where they could be reunited with their families. He was seen by many in the community as successful businessman who could within the parameters of the laws but also knew which hands needed to or could be be greased to get his way. He did not aspire to be one of the local taipans which at one point dominated the Philippine economy. He did not need that kind of attention. After all, he usually reasoned to himself, that was not his mission.
When he emigrated from China as a young man decades before, he was already trained and groomed by Chinese intelligence to blend in, to learn about his adoptive country and exploit its people's weaknesses. In the last task, he was exceptional. He had forged both business and political ties throughout the archipelago in the last three decades. Though he had used much of his clout to secure his personal wealth, he never wavered in his original task: to co-opt the Chinese-Filipino community to turn their backs on the Philippine government and send them straight into the arms of the Beijing government. The wealth of information he had gathered from his sources played a hand in the easy seizure of most of the islands of the contested South China Sea. He quietly organized a sizable number of Filipino legislators to oppose the improvements on the fortifications on Pag-asa island but was defeated when many of the same legislators reversed their positions after the fall of Taiwan.
His superiors from the mainland gave him a new and difficult task. It was a mission that risked everything he had built up over the decades, endangered the operatives that were working around the islands and could expose most of his informants. He and his operatives were to make plans to disrupt or destroy the Philippine defense infrastructure which included attacks on key bases, communications facilities, important public utilities and even assassinations of key public officials. Everything was set in motion when that peculiar blackout occurred the other day. He knew it was a signal to him that he had to begin the necessary preparations. The timetable bothered him. It seemed rushed. It felt like somebody in the Central Committee panicked. China was going to wrest Benham Rise away from the Filipinos. Ten years ago that would have militarily feasible as the Filipinos didn't have a real air force or navy and its traditional allies like the United States and ASEAN were clear that they weren't going to come to their aid if and when war came. This was not the case anymore. The Filipinos managed to scrape together a credible air force and navy. Though the Americans were experiencing a degree of war fatigue at home, he knew it would honor its treaty obligations to defend the Philippines if it was attacked. If ASEAN as a whole would not allow itself to be dragged into a war, he knew that any southern movement would be seen as a hostile act by Vietnam and would unnerve the usually cooperative countries like Singapore and Malaysia and might force all of them to take action against China. The timing for the strikes would have to be perfect. The assassinations would have to be in such a way that the country would be thrown into utter confusion before it could put up any resistance. He went over his mental list of the politicians that should be taken down at the first blow which included the president, key members of his cabinet, the AFP chief of staff and the heads of the various military branches and police. Their plan rested decapitating the national leadership and for them to be replaced by politicians who would be willing to do their bidding. He already had people in mind for specific key posts. As for who could step into President de Ocampo's shoes once he's removed, he didn't really need to look that far.
As his chauffeured car headed off, a man on a motorcycle was was following him from a distance. He was at the parking lot at the dinner meeting with the rest of the other chauffeurs. He posed as just another driver for another event net door. The man was careful to note who they drove for and what they thought about their employers. Mostly gossip about this taipan and his mistresses or this matron with a philandering husband and that other man who was dealing with smugglers from China. It was talk that was easily shared and just as easily forgotten. But the smuggler story caught his attention. He knew his people would be interested on who this talkative driver was working for. When the dinner was over, each of the drivers retreated back to their vehicles and waited for their patrons to board. Before leaving the parking lot area he snapped a picture of car, its license plate and kept an eye on his suspect's vehicle. When the owner was about to enter the car, he quickly took a picture and slowly walked back to his motorcycle. He followed them out of the district. Slowly backing off when he felt he was getting too close, he tailed the car back to what he assumed was the man's residence and then drove on. Before he even got back to his cubicle at NICA, they already had a name and a dossier of his target on his desk.
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